Strana 15
POSITIV 1/2018 | 15
a modest wood cottage in Střelmá. I spent many won-
derful days wandering the slopes of the Čantoryje,
Sošov, Filipka and neighbourhood, in the circle of the
close family, both grandmothers and grandfathers
included. My brother still lives in the area and I am
happy to come back whenever I have the time.
Nothing compares to the places where you spent your
childhood and youth.
I do recommend going to the Těšín part of the Beskyd
Mountains, the amazing range of mountains between
Nýdek and Hrčava (the most eastern village in the
Czech Rep. at the border point of the Czech and
Slovak Republics and Poland). And I will never forget
the delicious “placki na blasze”, fantastic potato
pancakes which granny Rusnok made sweet with
cream or salty with pork cracklings.
What is your estimate of the development of the
CZK / EUR rate by the end of 2018 and in 2019?
The current prognosis of CNB (model estimate)
defines the average rate in 2018 at 24.80 and in 2019
at 24.30 CZK per EUR.
When do you expect the introduction of the EUR in
the present political situation in the Czech Rep. and
the EU (Italian election, etc.)?
In autumn 2017 the Czech government announced
they were not setting a particular date of joining the
system ERM2 and the Eurozone as it is. Therefore we
cannot expect this step in the nearest future. However,
it is mostly a political decision so it will depend on the
political development in the Czech Republic.
Jan Skipala
What impact will the problems of the Chinese bank
CEFC and J&T have on investments?
As for the overall Czech economy, even a single
Chinese company’s difficulties may have a conside-
rable effect. However, this company is most probably
going to be acquired by a significant semi-state-owned
investor, so there is hardly any dramatic impact to be
expected on Czech business partners. In the banking
segment of J&T Group the Chinese investor is a minor
shareholder, and the bank itself runs on standard capital
and normal operation.
What do you see as “normal” interest rates in Czech
environment for near future? What increase should
business expect?
This year we expect only a mild increase in commercial
interest rates on the Czech market, I estimate it at only
a few tenths of a percentage point. In 2019 the interest
rate may increase more, our prognosis estimates the
average rate at 3M PRIBOR at 1.7%.
What risks of instability and what factors limiting the
increase of the Czech economy do you see from your
position and from the view of targeting inflation?
As I’ve said before, in the short term (including 2019),
I feel optimistic. The greatest obstacle of a faster
increase remains in the lack of a labour force. The
insecurities relate to political tension worldwide, and
efforts to limit free market and trade. Targeting inflation
does not tend to change the standard operation with
central banks anywhere in the world. The same applies
to CNB.
Thank you for the interview.